Trusted Advisor University

Every month my pal Sally and I meet for a cauliflower crust pizza lunch and then head off to TAU--Trusted Advisor University. It is free for us real estate folks. Essentially, us participants get together and listen to a fabulous and knowledgeable speaker give the state of the market speech. It is 90 minutes of charts and graphs and other fascinating bits of knowledge to help us be better at what we do. Here's a few tid-bits:

• There are currently 23 homes for sale in Gilbert AZ under $300,000. There are 240,000 residents in Gilbert. So, yes, a shortage.
• The home market index for the greater Phoenix metro area is 200.7. If I may break that down. Think of an index of 100 as "balanced"--just enough buyers and sellers. This means there are 2 buyers for every home for sale.
• The average percentage of sold price versus listing price (under $500,000)  right now is approximately 103 percent. So homes are selling for 3 percent higher than their list price.
• Even if there is an upcoming recession, recessions don't tend to hurt real estate prices and inventory. Historically, the two recessions that impacted real estate pricing and inventory in the last 50 years were in 1991 and 2008. Given there are currently in the Phoenix metro market 2 buyers for every 1 home on the market, a dip in the market at this point, would mean we might have 1 buyer for every 1 home on the market. Also, "recessions" mean two quarters of a flat economy. Historically, we are through a recession by the time someone gets around to announcing we are in a recession. The obvious exception is 2008. The second obvious exception is 1929-1930. Those two recessions lasted a bit longer and if you look at some of the economic policies in place, that might have contributed to the length of the economic downturn. But what do I know? 
• Condos can now receive FHA certification again.
• Most homes being built in the Phoenix metro area right now are multi-family. This is partially because of the lack of land available to build homes. It is also because there is such a huge demand for affordable housing right now.
• Roughly 95 percent of the agents in the room had their license less than 5 years. I found that fascinating. I am considered an "old timer" because I was around through the boom of 2004 and the bust of 2007.